Title / Abstract / Key words

Title

Option 1.

From Decline to Recovery? A Causal Analysis of Incheon’s Comprehensive Fertility Incentive Program

Option 2.

Evaluating the Impact of Incheon's “100 Million Plus i-Dream” Policy on Fertility: A Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Approach

Option 3.

Can Financial Incentives Reverse Fertility Decline? Evidence from Incheon’s '100 Million Plus i-Dream' Policy

 

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Abstract

South Korea has grappled with persistently low fertility rates despite two decades of government intervention, including the implementation of the Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aging Society. Existing childbirth incentive policies have shown limited effectiveness, prompting the need for more substantial and sustained support measures. This study investigates the causal impact of Incheon Metropolitan City’s “100 Million Plus i-Dream” policy—launched in 2024 and offering up to 100 million KRW per child until age 18—on fertility rates. Using a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) methodology, we analyze birth trends across 16 administrative districts from 2000 to 2024, controlling for various confounding factors. Our findings indicate that the policy led to a 5% increase in the total fertility rate and an 8% increase in the number of births in 2024. While these early results are promising, the full effects may not yet be observable due to the short post-implementation window. Nevertheless, the study provides valuable evidence suggesting that comprehensive, long-term financial support can positively influence fertility decisions. These insights offer meaningful guidance for future policy design aimed at addressing Korea’s demographic challenges.

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Key words

Childbirth incentives, Synthetic Difference-in-Differences, Policy evaluation, Causal effect, Fertility rate, number of birth 

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